Portfolio Considerations in Differentiated Product Purchases: An Application to the Japanese Automobile Market

Abstract:

Consumers often purchase more than one differentiated product, assembling a portfolio, which might potentially affect substitution patterns of demand and, as a consequence, oligopolistic firms’ pricing strategies. To study such consumers’ portfolio considerations, this paper develops and estimates a structural model that allows for flexible complementarities/substitutabilities, using Japanese household-level data on automobile purchases. My estimates suggest that complementarities arise when households purchase a combination of one small automobile and one minivan as their portfolio.

Simulation results suggest that, due to such portfolio considerations, a policy proposal of repealing the current tax subsidies for small eco-friendly automobiles would not necessarily sharply decrease the demand.

Keywords: Multiple Discrete Choices, Complementarities, Environmental Policy

JEL Classification: D43, L13, L62, Q58

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499.pdf

Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium with Unobserved Price Discrimination

Abstract:

This paper deals with the estimation of structural models of demand and supply with incomplete information on prices. When the seller is able to price discriminate, or the buyer to bargain, individuals pay different prices that are usually not collected in the data. This paper explores a method to estimate the supply and demand models jointly when only posted prices are observed. We consider that heterogenous transaction prices occur due to price discrimination by firms on observable characteristics of consumers. Within this framework, the identification is secured by (i) supposing that at least one group of individuals does pay the posted prices and (ii) assuming that the marginal costs of producing and selling the goods does not depend on the characteristics of the buyers. This methodology is applied to estimate the demand in the new automobile market in France. Results suggest that discounting arising from price discrimination is important. The average discount is estimated to be 5.2%, with large variation according to the buyers’ characteristics. Our results are in line with discounts generally observed in European and American automobile markets.

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How Would Hedge Fund Regulation Affect Investor Behavior? Implications for Systemic Risk

Abstract:

We estimate an investors’ demand model for hedge funds to analyze the potential impact of leverage limits in the industry. Our estimation results highlight the importance of heterogeneous investor preference for the use of leverage, i.e., 20% of investors prefer leverage usage while others do not. We then conduct a policy simulation in which regulators put a cap on allowable leverage, as proposed by the Financial Stability Board in 2012. Simulation results suggest that the 200% leverage limit would lower the total demand (assets under management) for hedge funds by 10%. In particular, the regulation would lead to lower investments in highly leveraged funds and to lower investments in risky strategies, which, in turn, would reduce systemic risk.

Keywords: hedge funds, demand estimation, leverage regulation, systemic risk

JEL Classification: G38, G23, L52

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473.pdf

Whenever and Wherever: The Role of Card Acceptance in the Transaction Demand for Money

Abstract:

The use of payment cards, either debit or credit, is becoming more and more widespread in developed economies. Nevertheless, the use of cash remains significant. We hypothesize that the lack of card acceptance at the point of sale is a key reason why cash continues to play an important role. We formulate a simple inventory model that predicts that the level of cash demand falls with an increase in card acceptance. We use detailed payment diary data from Austrian and Canadian consumers to test this model while accounting for the endogeneity of acceptance. Our results confirm that card acceptance exerts a substantial impact on the demand for cash. The estimate of the consumption elasticity (0.23 and 0.11 for Austria and Canada, respectively) is smaller than that predicted by the classic Baumol-Tobin inventory model (0.5). We conduct counterfactual experiments and quantify the effect of increased card acceptance on the demand for cash. Acceptance reduces the level of cash demand as well as its consumption elasticity.

Topics: Bank notes; Econometric and statistical methods; E-money; Financial services.

JEL Codes: E41, C35, C83.

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472.pdf

The Fragility of Short-Term Secured Funding Markets

Abstract:

This paper develops an infinite-horizon model of financial institutions that borrow short-term and invest in long-term assets that can be traded in frictionless markets. Because these financial intermediaries perform maturity transformation, they are subject to potential runs. We derive distinct liquidity, collateral, and asset liquidation constraints, which determine whether a run can occur as a result of changing market expectations. We show that the extent to which borrowers can ward off an individual run depends on whether it has sufficient liquidity, collateral, and asset liquidation capacity. These determinants depend on the borrower’s (endogenous) balance sheet and on (exogenous) fundamentals. Systemic runs are possible if shocks to the valuation of collateral held by outside investors are sufficiently strong and uniform, and if the system as a whole is exposed to high short-term funding risk. The theory has policy implications for prudential regulation and lender-of-last-resort interventions.

Keywords: Investment banking, securities dealers, repurchase agreements,

runs, financial fragility, collateral, systemic risk.

JEL classification: E44, E58, G24

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449.pdf

Repo Runs

Abstract:

The recent financial crisis has shown that short-term collateralized borrowing may be a highly unstable source of funds in times of stress. The present paper develops a dynamic equilibrium model and analyzes under what conditions such instability can be a consequence of market-wide changes in expectations. We derive a liquidity constraint and a collateral constraint that determine whether such expectations-driven runs are possible and show that they depend crucially on the microstructure of particular funding markets that we examine in detail. In particular, our model provides insights into the differences between the tri-party repo market and the bilateral repo market, which were both at the heart of the recent financial crisis.

Keywords: Investment banking, repurchase agreements, tri-party repo, bilateral repo, money market mutual funds, asset-backed commercial paper, bank runs.

JEL classification: E44, E58, G24

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448.pdf

Incentive Compatibility and Differentiability: New Results and Classic Applications

Abstract:

We provide several generalizations of Mailath's (1987) result that in games of asymmetric information with a continuum of types incentive compatibility plus separation implies differentiability of the informed agent's strategy. The new results extend the theory to classic models in finance such as Leland and Pyle (1977), Glosten (1989), and DeMarzo and Duffie (1999), that were not previously covered.

JEL Classification: C60, C73, D82, D83, G14

Keywords: Adverse selection, separation, differentiable strategies, incentive compatibility

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447.pdf

Two-sided reputation in certification markets

Abstract:

We consider a market where privately informed sellers resort to certification to overcome adverse selection. There is uncertainty about the certifier's ability to generate accurate information. The profit of a monopolistic certifier is an inverted U-shaped function of his reputation for accuracy: being perceived as more precise allows to attract more good sellers but a high expected precision also deters bad sellers. Since the certifier tries to reach a balanced reputation to attract both types, reputation has a disciplining effect when the certifier is perceived as insufficiently accurate, but gives incentives to decrease precision when he is perceived as “too" accurate. The impact of competition depends on whether sellers “multihome" or “singlehome". Under singlehoming, certifiers compete to attract good sellers, which makes higher reputation more valuable. Multihoming makes higher reputations less desirable because the competitor exerts a negative externality by providing extra information. Therefore, singlehoming attenuates bad reputation effects, while multihoming exacerbates inefficiencies.

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446.pdf

A Semiparametric Test of Agent's Information Sets for Games of Incomplete Information

Abstract:

We propose semiparametric tests of misspecification of agent's information for games of incomplete information. The tests use the intuition that the opponent's choices should not predict a player's choice conditional on the proposed information available to the player. The tests are designed to check against some commonly used null hypotheses (Bajari et al. (2010), Aradillas-Lopez (2010)). We show that our tests have power to discriminate between common alternatives even in small samples. We apply our tests to data on entry in the US airline industry. Both the assumptions of independent and correlated private shocks are not supported by the data.

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Why Do Shoppers Use Cash? Evidence from Shopping Diary Data

Abstract:

Recent studies find that cash remains a dominant payment choice for small-value transactions despite the prevalence of alternative methods of payment such as debit and credit cards. For policy makers an important question is whether consumers truly prefer using cash or merchants restrict card usage. Using unique shopping diary data, we estimate a payment choice model with individual unobserved heterogeneity (demandside factors) while controlling for merchants’ acceptance of cards (supply-side factors). Based on a policy simulation where we impose universal card acceptance among merchants, we find that overall cash usage would decrease by only 7.7 percentage points, implying that cash usage in small-value transactions is driven mainly by consumers’ preferences.

Keywords: Money demand, Payment methods, Consumer financial behavior

JEL Classification: G2, D1, C2

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431.pdf

Estimating a War of Attrition: The Case of the U.S. Movie Theater Industry

Abstract:

This paper provides a tractable empirical framework to analyze firm behavior in a dynamic oligopoly when demand is declining over time. I modify Fudenberg and Tirole (1986).s model of exit in a duopoly with incomplete information to a model that can be used in an oligopoly, and combine this with an auxiliary entry model to address the initial conditions problem. I estimate this model with panel data on the U.S. movie theater industry from 1949 to 1955, using variations in TV diffusion rates across households, market structure before the exit game starts, and other market characteristics to identify the parameters in the theater’s payoff function and the distribution of unobservable fixed costs. Using the estimated model, I measure strategic delays in the exit process due to oligopolistic competition and incomplete information. The delay in exit that arises from strategic interaction is 2.7 years on average. Out of these years, 3.7% of this delay is accounted for by incomplete information, while the remaining 96.3% is explained by oligopolistic competition.

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Testing for Equilibrium Multiplicity in Dynamic Markov Games

Abstract:

This paper proposes several statistical tests for finite state Markov games to examine the null hypothesis that the data are generated from a single equilibrium. We formulate tests of (i) the conditional choice probabilities, (ii) the steady-state distribution of states and (iii) the conditional distribution of states conditional on an initial state. In a Monte Carlo study we find that the chi-squared test of the steady-state distribution performs well and has high power even with a small number of markets and time periods. We apply the chi-squared test to the empirical application of Ryan (2012) that analyzes dynamics of the U.S. Portland Cement industry and test if his assumption of single equilibrium is supported by the data.

Keywords: Dynamic Markov Game, Multiplicity of Equilibria, Testing.

Jel Classification: C12, C72, D44.

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The Effect of Public Policies on Consumers' Preferences: Lessons from the French Automobile Market

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate whether French consumers have modified their preferences towards environmentally-friendly vehicles between 2003 and 2008. We estimate a model of demand for automobiles incorporating both consumers' heterogeneity and CO2 emissions of the vehicles. Our results show that there has been a shift in preferences towards low-emitting cars, with an average increase of 367 euros of the willingness to pay for a reduction of 10 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer. We also stress a large heterogeneity in the evolution of preferences between consumers. Rich and young people are more sensitive to environmental issues, and our results are in line with votes for the green party at the presidential elections. We relate these changes with two environmental policies that were introduced at these times, namely the obligation of indicating energy labels by the end of 2005 and a feebate based on CO2 emissions of new vehicles in 2008. Our results suggest that such policies have been efficient tools to shift consumers utility towards environmentally-friendly goods, the shift in preferences accounting for 20% of the overall decrease in average CO2 emissions of new cars on the period.

Keywords: environmental policy, consumers' preferences, CO2 emissions, automobiles.

JEL codes: D12, H23, L62, Q51.

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422.pdf